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Circling the Abyss  (May 2016)

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The world economy is dying and a lot of people are starting to wake up to the idea that something is horribly wrong.  They are beginning to question the barrage of propaganda coming out of the mouths of politicians, central bankers, CEOs and newspaper reporters.  Trust is waning in our society leaders.

That lack of trust is well deserved when considering the state of economy, healthcare, immigration and environment fundamentals.  Clearly the people who manage policy have made some terrible errors in judgement, repeatedly over several decades for the world to have reached its current tipping point.

Dishonest Politics

With no solutions in sight to declining economic growth, lack of quality full time jobs or opportunity and environmental decline, our leaders have turned more than ever to the science of “spin” to foster the appearance of prosperity.  Decline is rebranded dishonestly as “seasonal adjustment”, “cyclical decline”, “recession”, “necessary correction”, “rebalancing” or one of a thousand other affable polysyllabic distractions designed to excuse calamity and calm panic.

The Trump Phenomenon.

US presidential nominee Trump appears to be pointing the finger at the crony political system, the establishment of political magnates and billionaires that have failed the US and arguably the whole world.  Clearly people should vote for a movement that threatens to expose the destructive self-interest and potential corruption that afflict many governments today.  We should, however, be wary.  In terms of policy Trump has no real solutions, no magic potion for the global economic malaise.  That’s because global economics may be beyond redemption.  Our monetary system has almost certainly been ruined by a worldwide cabal of central bankers bent on pursuing unsustainable strategies designed to profit wasteful government spenders, the stock market and ultimately big-money like billionaires and banks.  As a result the world is so deep in debt that no amount of economic posturing can save it.  The end result is a future of pain as the world’s monetary house of cards collapses in the coming decades.  Eventually some kind of prosperity may return but the socialist largess and unsustainable credit fuelled lifestyles of the last fifty years are unlikely to survive.  For those willing to work hard however there will be opportunity but for the indolent, greedy and superficial times will be hard.

Bill Clinton’s Economic Success or Statistical Manipulation

Repackaging information in positive terms is a build block of government spin and propaganda.  The truth remains that there hasn’t been any real economic success in the world for decades.  The Clinton administration from 1992 to 2001 in the USA is case in point.  While it was claimed that employment, growth and GDP improved during that time, what is not explained is that during Clinton’s administration the methodology, the very algorithms used to measure prosperity, were changed to make the public figures look better.  The BLS statisticians of the time would argue that they were simply adapting the figures to better represent changes in technology, housing standards or food-culture but other economists might say it was just manipulation.

The continued creative use of statistics has never been more prevalent than today.  For example:  Cost of living assumes people will give up beef and eat pork if the cost of pork is lower than beef, subsequently if beef rises in price too much it is dropped from the standard basket of groceries used to calculate rising consumer costs, thereby masking an undesirable economic shift from the public eye.  That most people might not want to eat pork is beside the point.  Ultimately if the BLS had its way everyone would be happy to eat bread and water, live in cardboard boxes and work forty hours a week for $100.

BLS Statistics or BS Statistics.

Today the US BLS and Australian Bureau of Statistics claim that unemployment is lower than ever.  Closer analysis reveals that very few quality full time middle-class jobs have been added to the global employment pool to date and that only part-time or casual positions are being created.  The claim of more jobs is achieved by classifying someone with three part time jobs as a full-time worker.  This does not represent quality or stable full time employment.

 In Australia recently the Bureau of Statistics produced a report claiming a decrease in the unemployment rate for April 2016.  Looking at the seasonally adjusted figures it is clearly stated that there was a decline in full time employment of 9300 jobs.  In reality therefore, there was an increase in under-employment.  That is, fewer people got a proper job and had to make do with part time work. 

The same adjustments are used worldwide by government statisticians in Europe, Japan and elsewhere to improve the look of economic figures in general, in an effort to make our incumbent governmental institutions look competent.  

Police Not Government

Currently, democracy is failing.  This is exemplified by the struggle to find agreement in European countries where elections that often result in hung parliaments.  Coalitions of minor parties must often be formed to create a working government.  Ultimately this puts into power a conglomerate political organisation that no one really voted for?  As populations struggle to find consensus such deadlocks appear to be becoming increasingly more common and is further worsened by an increase in the formation of new alternative (and sometimes radical) political parties.

Let’s not forget the purpose of government.  Given that a society without government would be a truly brutal one, some kind of policing is needed to ensure that justice not criminal-might drives capitalism and prosperity.  A government in that case is minutely small and simple.  Its only purpose is to maintain the laws that garner social fairness and equality as much as possible.  To avoid interference and over regulation it is the consumer who represses corporate practices that might otherwise be considered morally grey.  If a company errs in their responsibility to the economy or environment it should be the consumer who responds through the boycotting of products or services.  Obviously, better public education as opposed to advertising propaganda or government regulation, is the key to ensuring people are informed enough to know when they are being exploited.

Further Reading

How the BLS shrinks CPI

Socialisms One Percenters

15 Facts About The Imploding US Economy